PGA DFS Strategy #1 GOLF COURSE DATA ⛳️ Daily Fantasy Golf HELP [2019 Daily Fantasy Sports] PGA DFS
PGA DFS Strategy #1 GOLF COURSE DATA ⛳️ Daily Fantasy Golf HELP [2019 Daily Fantasy Sports] PGA DFS


– Hopefully you caught the beginner tips, because now I’m going to tell you how to use golf course data to play PGA on DraftKings and FanDuel like a pro. It’s part one of this advanced
daily fantasy golf series, and we’re starting right now. (lightning strike) What’s up guys, Joe Holka here. Welcome to another daily fantasy
sports and betting video. If this is your first time here and you want to become a
profitable DraftKings player and get better at betting, start now by subscribing to the channel, hit that notification bell
so you don’t miss anything along the way. If you’re already a Holkimaniac,
you know what to do. Smash that like button
and we’ll get started. The theme today id that every
golf course is different, so we have to prepare as such for DFS. So we’re gonna start with
‘what exactly is course fit?’. (lightning strike) There’s courses that play
shorter, courses that play longer. There’s water hazards, bunkers, like some are fairly wide open. I would imagine that that really affects some of the things that
you’re looking for, so. Drewby, my big question is, I guess, am I correct in saying that? That like, based on
these different courses, are you looking for different stats, are some things still
pretty uniform throughout? – Yeah so it’s really
interesting, and the guys who do the DailyRoto projections are actually, we outsource it to this group, Data Golf. They do an awesome job with it, they’re really mathematically based and do it in a different way than we would be capable of ourselves. The stuff you mentioned certainly
controls all the narrative as far as content,
conversations, podcasts, videos, articles and all of that. And each definitely is different, they do have unique characteristics,
except on the outliers, the really short, narrow courses,
or the super long courses. What they’ve found is that course fit is actually
not very predictive, from a mathematical perspective. Kind of in the same way as the defenses don’t
matter group in the NFL. Like it is not adding a ton of value compared to looking at the
golfers long term form, short term form and adjusted round scores. And if anything, I would say that the course fit conversations
in the PGA DFS community, while it’s good content, I think often time it steers
people onto the same plays, and not necessarily from
a predictive perspective, it’s really more descriptive. – So Davis, I’ll bring it to you on
kind of the same question. Does defense matter? Do
courses matter in golf? – So I probably tend to be more on the, course fit matters, shot distance matters, like weighting this stat, than Drewby and the Data Golf
guys at DailyRoto would be. But I think that probably a lot of that is just needing to find
a reason to take guys, other than, his odds look good, but he’s probably little bit under priced and he won’t be that owned. So I think a lot of the discussion, and a lot of the things we
talk about on golf podcasts, maybe they matter from
like, a very high level, but it’s hard to extract exact
predictive value from them. So yeah, I think it matters,
but a lot of it probably is attention paid on things
that don’t matter as much as, like, just is this guy good at golf. Or is he playing golf well right now. – There’s a lot of
different tools you can use to kind of compile a list
of players that, you know, have been playing well, it’s
fairly easy to identify those, see who should play well at
this type of golf course. Whether it’s a really long
golf course, you want a bomber. A narrow, short golf course, you want someone who
tends to hit it straight and their irons are good. – Everything else is just
going to be course dependent. On a course that has wider
fairways or shorter rough, then I’ll definitely give a bigger weight to those that can drive the ball well. On shorter course, like
this week at the Sony Open, I’m definitely going to give an edge to those golfers that are
better with their irons, so a strong approach play. And then just depending on the course, some are harder to scramble on, you know, some of the majors, where
typically par is a good score, you want to have those
guys that can scramble. (lightning strike) – By the way guys, if
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following me over there, I’d really appreciate it. Now that we have a better
understanding of course fit, let’s talk a little bit about
course difficulty as a whole, and what types of golfers
we should be targeting in some of these tough environments. (lightning strike) Awesome, that’s great to
know that we have a nice, kind of diverse group there. Drew I’ve been saving this one for you, since you’re the actual
golfer in the crew. So is there any exceptions, as far as higher course difficulty, where we definitely want a
little bit more consistency? And maybe some less volatility. – Yeah, I think like, at
majors, is a big example. Like the US Open this last year, the guys, even though the best players
in the world missed cuts, like Rory McIlroy. You’re definitely looking for, like, basically avoiding bogeys,
versus getting birdies. Now, they kind of go hand in hand, like I was looking earlier, Gary Woodland is leading
the Tour in birdies made in the last like six events, but he’s also near the
top in bogey avoidance. So, that’s kind of where
the more expensive golfers come into play, and then as you go down, the variance kind of creates itself, so. Yeah there’s definitely events where you look at the scoring. We’ll use US Open versus like,
The Greenbrier, for example, where the scoring can be even par winning score for the US Open. They’re not going to
make that many birdies. Versus The Greenbrier, you know, you want a guy that’s going to make six to eight birdies a round, and if he has, you know,
two, three, four bogeys, he can make it up in those birdies, so. Definitely a lot of volatility in those lower scoring events. – But it doesn’t matter what
you’re looking at on the course as far as the metrics are concerned? – Yeah I think a little bit. On a tougher course it does
place a bigger emphasis on finishing position. So you do want to try
to get those guys that are going to finish in the top 10. Maybe take a few more chances,
whereas on an easier course, you want to maximize the number of rounds your golfers are going to get, so maybe you sacrifice
some upside for, you know, some more cut equity, and then that way you get as many rounds in as
possible on the easier course, where your guys are going
to rack up more birdies. – Yeah so, the polar opposite
examples would be like, the tournament last week,
where the winning score is typically 20 under par, and then, US Open where the winning
score is typically even par. And in those events there are, in the harder events there
less birdies generated and that means that the
placement points matter a lot. So even in cash games for the US Open, I think it’s often optimal to pay up for the very highest priced
golfer, just because, if you get someone who
gets like a top 5 finish, and grabs those 10 to 30 scoring points, that’s going to offset two
missed cuts from other guys who could have been on your roster, just because there’s not many
birdies had on the weekend. Whereas, a birdie fest
like last weeks event, you definitely want to go more balanced, especially if there’s
a cut like this week, just because a missed cut and
a missed round on the weekend could be 30 DK points in itself, so. That’s kind of the simplest level. In the harder tournaments
I think paying up for the top-end players
is a more viable strategy than it is in some of
the smaller tournaments. – So how is something
like course difficulty, how is that calculated? Like, how do you kind of
place that to even get an idea of like how difficult the course is? Is that an egregious question? But that’s something I was
asking you guys myself just now. – Yeah so we’ll look at it
over the previous five years. Kind of look at what
the average, you know, round for the PGA tour is there, and then adjust it for the field. And then the other piece, is
the wind and the conditions. That’s something that can
certainly change year to year, and especially in some of the tournaments like The Open Championship. And there are some nuanced
elements of DFS golf if the winds end up being really strong for a particular event,
especially on the PGA Tour, guys tee off at different times. So some guys are going
to tee off Thursday AM and then play their
second round Friday PM. Other guys are going
to tee of Thursday PM, and play their second round Friday AM. So sometimes there are conditions where guys in different
tee times and wavelengths will tee off with like a 10
or 15 mile per hour difference in the average winds, which not only could impact
the scoring environment for the tournament as a whole, but for specific players that
tee off at different times. (lightning strike) – Before we get back at
it, if you like my work and want to support my work, the number one way you can do so for free is by bookmarking my Amazon link. A lot of people find it a
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below if you decide to join the Amazon crew, and I’ll give you a
shoutout in the next video. A polarizing topic in DFS golf right now is course history, so I wanted to talk to our experts and get a little bit better feel for how reliable this data actually is. (lightning strike) – Course history is a big debate in golf. As far as I’m concerned it’s
real, at least mentally, for these guys, and it
definitely plays a part. Statistically I think, mathematically, you can argue against it, but, there’s so many guys. You look at like, Zach Johnson this week, he has really good course history. The John Deere Classic is another one, he’s finished top 10 in 10 straight years, or nine out of 10 years
or something like that. And his form going into those events has always been sporadic. So as a golfer, you’re
going to these events, there’s something about the
golf course that fits them, or at least fits there
eye, where they play well. – I have a pretty good friend
who’s won a couple times on the PGA Tour, and spent
many nights talking to him, and, you know, I’m no way near Drew’s
capability as a golfer, but if you’ve played golf
somewhat competitively. Whether it’s MGA or anything, you know when you go to a certain course if it fits your eye or not, and you know, if you’re around guys
that played on mini tours and all that kind of
stuff and talk to them, they say, hey I may love this course and it fits me, but it
doesn’t necessarily mean I’m going to shoot well today. There’s still variables there. But you got to play the odds that, hey, Jimmy Walker loves the West Coast a lot, and the stat kind of shows
it so you may bump him up. (lightning strike) – Just a reminder guys, if you’re looking to invest in yourself and take your game to the next level, I do offer a one-on-one coaching, so check out joeholka.com/coaching for more info on that. But if you prefer to
learn in a group setting most people don’t realize that, if they already have an
Amazon Prime account, they automatically have access to a Twitch Prime Subscription. So with that, you get access
to a premium Discord chat, as well as a bunch of other
subscriber perks, but, regardless guys, you’re doing
yourself a serious disservice if you’re not taking advantage
of those live streams. So make sure and follow
at twitch.tv/joeholka so you don’t miss anything. (lightning strike) – This is the big debate, right. And there’s a big debate in any sport. In the NFL this year the big debate was ‘Do defenses matter?’,
it just kind of came out. In baseball, the argument
for years has been, whether batter versus pitcher is relevant, and course history is kind of the PGA
equivalent of those things. I mean it really is. You look at some golfers. I mean, where I kind of land
on this is most golfers, if you ask most golfers this question, they would answer with that
it absolutely matters, right. Baseball players are
better at certain fields because they see the ball
better with the hitters eye at that particular stadium. Basketball players, some of them shoot better
in particular venues because of the backdrop. And, you know, certain golf courses fit golfers
eyes a little bit better, and they’re better fit for places. You know, a shorter hitter is better fit for a shorter golf course or
a tree-lined golf course, so. The golfers themselves will
tell you that it matters, and I think completely
ignoring it is foolish. Now, how much stock you want to weight it, there’s certainly room for
gray area and debate in there, but when you see guys that have
success at the same course, year over year, and they’re contending four
or five straight top 20s at a tournament, but maybe they’re not
doing that at other places. You absolutely have to consider that as part of your process. Now it can be part of a
bigger picture but, I mean, I think you’re just missing out if you’re not looking at it at all. The data is easily identifiable
and I think it matters. – You know, Sunday
night I’ll start looking at the next weeks course set up. I mean now that, I think
this is maybe my third full, maybe fourth year of, you know, I’ve watched golf for many, many years, but analyzing it such
a way that you do now, you kind of automatically
know the basics of the course and what’s coming up and
what to expect from the week. You’ll do a refresher on it and then, with that kind of stuff we’ve
been talking about earlier, you’ll see par four scoring pops out. What does that mean? Does
it mean you go look at, so for me like, some guys will just look
at it on the sense of, I need guys that score well on par 4. And for me all it does, I look at it a little
bit different because, for me it takes away guys that normally get a lot of their scoring, or strokes gained if you will, on par 5s. This week it gets taken
away from them in a sense. So if a guy, and you look over
the past six to eight rounds and they’ve gained most of their, whether you look at
points, birdies, strokes, it really doesn’t matter to me, from the par 5s relative to the field, well this week that’s
almost taken away from them because almost everybody
can get to the par 5s here, there’s only two of them. There’s drivable par 4
for almost every golfer, so it equalizes a lot of that for the guys that took
advantage of the par 5s, so then that’s why the par
4 has an uptick this week, which is a little bit
different than an average week or an average course. So you kind of look at two
or three of those things that kind of stick out and gauge on that. And then inside the industry, you’re going to hear a lot of that. So then you have to sit back and go ‘how do I differentiate myself?’. Because if I just mimic what
the 17 podcasts all said, then I’m going to wind
up with the same builds. (lightning strike) If you want to learn about how to become a profitable
daily fantasy sports player and how to get better
at betting, start now, hit that subscribe icon in
the bottom right hand corner so you don’t miss anything. Thank you so much for watching, and I’ll see you guys next time.

3 thoughts on “PGA DFS Strategy #1 GOLF COURSE DATA ⛳️ Daily Fantasy Golf HELP [2019 Daily Fantasy Sports] PGA DFS”

  1. Joe Holka says:

    Does course history matter in PGA DFS?

  2. Joe Holka says:

    ►Be sure and check out the entire PGA DFS course ON-DEMAND once you finish this video👇
    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL5NKWlL_D0fmfi6EfRYS6VsjGNeesjeF7
    ►Update: The MLB DFS course is now LIVE👇
    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL5NKWlL_D0fn0hgQtQzFxcMe2V9aGYVFD

    ➝Like, comment, subscribe — it truly helps me out and goes a long way in supporting the channel!
    ➝Throw me the follow on Instagram (@JoeHolka) if you haven't already… a ton of exclusive content that doesn't make it to YouTube.

  3. Josh Cosgrove says:

    I tend to stick to things like strokes gained but definitely think course history is real.

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